From Blessing to Burden: The Long-Run Effects of India's Green Revolution (Job Market Paper)

Abstract
India continues to face a high burden of chronic diseases and persistent malnutrition, with the underlying causes not fully understood. Nutritional imbalances could be significant contributors to this challenge, potentially stemming from agricultural transformations that focus on maximizing caloric production over nutritional adequacy. In this context, I examine the unanticipated effects of Green Revolution technologies, particularly the introduction of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of rice and wheat in 1966, on crop diversity, nutrition, and long-term health outcomes. I use a difference-in-differences framework by leveraging time variation from the Green Revolution’s introduction and district-level variation in potential productivity gains from transitioning to HYVs, based on climatic characteristics. My findings show that districts with higher potential productivity gains for wheat and rice experienced greater HYV adoption, reduced crop diversity, lower lentil and millet production, and decreased availability of protein and micronutrients in the post-Green Revolution period. Individuals exposed to the Green Revolution in early childhood tend to be shorter and have higher rates of metabolic syndrome. These results suggest that early childhood nutritional declines can diminish the long-term health benefits of concurrent income gains.